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Happy Opening Night!
The Yankees and Giants kick off the 2026 regular season tonight at 8 p.m. ET on Netflix. And it's not just the first game of the year -- it's MLB's first regular-season game ever with the Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) Challenge System powered by T-Mobile, which will let batters, pitchers and catchers challenge ball and strike calls.
So … who will make that historic first challenge? It's one of the biggest questions surrounding ABS on Opening Night. We decided to ask the experts.
We enlisted the help of MLB.com Yankees beat reporter Bryan Hoch, Giants beat reporter Maria Guardado, national writer Anthony Castrovince and analysts Mike Petriello and David Adler to draft the five players we think are the most likely to have the first challenge of 2026.
Here's who we picked.
1) Trent Grisham, OF, Yankees
Grisham has one of the best eyes on the Yankees -- if not the whole league. He had the third-lowest chase rate in the Majors last season, so he knows the strike zone. And Grisham wasn't shy about challenging during either of the last two springs. At Spring Training 2026, he challenged five times, making him one of only 12 hitters to do so. Assuming he's the Yankees' leadoff hitter on Opening Night, if there's a borderline pitch, we could see a helmet tap in the game's first at-bat.
-- Bryan Hoch
2) Patrick Bailey, C, Giants
A two-time Gold Glove winner, Bailey is known as the best pitch framer in the game and should be able to use his extensive knowledge of the strike zone to win as many challenges as possible for starter Logan Webb and the rest of the Giants' pitching staff. Bailey won 10 of his 14 challenges during Spring Training (a stellar 71% win rate), ranking third among catchers with +4.6 overturns in his favor compared to what you'd expect from a catcher who received the same pitches.
-- Maria Guardado
3) Austin Wells, C, Yankees
Whoever it is, this will be the most anticipated "Challenge" on Netflix since "Squid Game." I'm all about taking a catcher here, and Maria already grabbed Patrick Bailey, for good reason. So I'll take Wells. He'll be working with starter Max Fried, who is known to fill the zone and work the corners and should offer the opportunity for some close calls.
Wells was away with the Dominican Republic team for the World Baseball Classic, so he didn't have as many challenge opportunities (nine total) in Spring Training. Actually, he was a bit overeager to use them in his first game with the ABS system early in camp, when he unsuccessfully challenged two pitches. But at least we know he's not afraid to tap in!
-- Anthony Castrovince
4) Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees
It's definitely going to be Bailey, but Maria correctly got there first. Instead, I'll go with the player who everyone absolutely assumes will benefit the most from ABS: the 6-foot-7 Judge, who regularly sees questionable calls around his knees. (Understandably so, given that his knees are at the belt of most people.)
Despite some evidence that it's shorter players who will benefit more than the tall, Judge is the poster boy for testing out the new challenge feature -- and as a strategic bonus, he's both A) guaranteed to bat in the top of the first and B) likely to be given the latitude to actually do this early in the game, as opposed to some other, lesser hitters who might be instructed to wait until the late innings.
-- Mike Petriello
5) José Caballero, SS, Yankees
The Yankees had a few aggressive challengers this spring. Grisham was one. Jazz Chisholm Jr. was another. But the most aggressive challenger was Caballero. He was one of the most aggressive at all of MLB Spring Training. Caballero's six challenges were the most of any hitter except Willson Contreras, and even among the players who challenged the most times, Caballero stood out for how frequently he pulled the trigger.
Plus, on Opening Night, he's facing a battery in Webb (nasty movement) and Bailey (elite pitch framing) that's as likely as any in the league to induce opposing hitters to challenge. As if Caballero needed any extra help.
-- David Adler
