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New year, new Astros predictions

December 28, 2023

It's been a rather uneventful offseason for the Astros, which shouldn't be a surprise when you consider that the roster will be stacked again in 2024 and the club's payroll is among the highest in the Major Leagues. Houston found its backup catcher by signing Victor Caratini to a two-year deal, and it added a bullpen piece by trading for Dylan Coleman from the Royals.

Sure, the Astros would love to add another starting pitcher, an outfielder and a couple more relievers, but that's not realistic. Of those, signing another reliever remains in play, but the payroll is currently trending to be over the Competitive Balance Tax of $237 million next year. The Astros will turn to internal candidates to fill some of their bullpen voids while giving Jake Meyers a chance to show what he can do as the Opening Day starter in center field.

When it comes to starting pitching, the Astros will have to rely on their depth while they wait for Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia to return from major surgeries; both should be back by midsummer. In the meantime, Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and José Urquidy will anchor the rotation, along with Hunter Brown and J.P. France, who were impact rookies in '23. That's assuming Urquidy isn't traded.

It's a good situation for first-year manager Joe Espada, who worked under two managers in Houston -- A.J. Hinch and Dusty Baker -- who won World Series titles. Alas, the defending World Series champions, the Texas Rangers, are in the Astros' division, but Houston will try to wrestle the title back from its Lone Star State rivals in 2024.

Biggest question to answer before Spring Training

Can the Astros add to the bullpen? Astros general manager Dana Brown said earlier this month the club will turn to internal candidates to fill some of the holes created following the departure of veteran relievers Hector Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek, who are free agents. Those three combined to throw 185 innings last season, which was about one-third of Houston's bullpen workload. There's still a chance the Astros could add a high-leverage reliever, so who's going to be setting up Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, Rafael Montero and Kendall Graveman? Regardless, multiple pitchers already on the roster will need to step up.

One player poised to have a breakout season

This is an easy one. It's catcher Yainer Diaz, who will be taking over the everyday starting job behind the plate. Diaz finished fifth in American League Rookie of the Year voting in 2023 after slashing .282/.308/.538 with 23 home runs and 60 RBIs in 377 plate appearances (his 23 homers were the second-most all-time by an Astros rookie). Diaz really took off at the plate when he started to get more consistent playing time as the season progressed, and it's not a stretch to think he could top 30 homers if he gets 500 plate appearances in 2024.

Prospect to watch in 2024

Right-hander Spencer Arrighetti, the team's No. 3 prospect per MLB Pipeline. He was named the team's Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2023 after going 9-7 with a 4.40 ERA in 28 appearances, including 21 starts between Double-A Corpus Christi and Triple-A Sugar Land. He had 141 strikeouts, a 1.25 WHIP and a .217 opponents' batting average and ranked third in strikeouts and fourth in opponents' batting average in the Astros' Minor League system this season. If there's an opening in the Astros' starting rotation, Arrighetti will get his chance at some point next season.

One prediction for the new year

Slugger Yordan Alvarez will win the AL Most Valuable Player, joining Jeff Bagwell (1994) and Jose Altuve (2017) as Astros' only MVP winners. Alvarez finished third behind Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani in the MVP voting in 2022 and was 13th in 2023, despite playing in only 114 games. He missed six weeks last seasn with an oblique injury and still mashed 30 homers and drove in 97 runs, while slashing .293/.407/.583. If Alvarez gets 600-plus plate appearances, look out. He's not only an elite power hitter, but one of the best all-around hitters in the game. Hey, and Ohtani is now in the National League.

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