Wednesday, December 20, 2023

Breaking down Wagner's chance for the Hall

December 20, 2023

When Astros closer Billy Wagner was on the mound, it was can't-miss television. After all, how many 5-foot-10 left-handers threw 100 mph gas, especially in the 1990s?

Wagner, the former Astros closer, was among the elite performers at his position for more than a decade, which is what being a Hall of Famer is all about. Is Wagner a Hall of Famer? He'll find out Jan. 23 when the results of the balloting of the Baseball Writers' Association of America are announced, but there's no doubt he has the credentials.

• Baseball Hall of Fame coverage

Last year, Wagner received 68.1 percent of the vote, which was short of the 75 percent needed to be elected into Cooperstown. Even if he falls short again this time, he'll have a final year on the ballot and appears to have enough momentum to at least give him hope that his wait could be over.

"I have no clear indication that [2024] will be the year," Wagner told MLB.com's Bill Ladson last month. "I talked to people who do some of the projections. They were like, 'Oh, this could be a nailbiter.' … It's unbelievably crazy how hard people are trying to figure out who the guys are [when it comes to getting into the Hall of Fame].

• List of HOF inductions by year

"I've done everything I could. If I have to go out there and talk to you about pleading my case, I feel like, really, my numbers weren't good enough. I hope this is the year. … If it's not, my life is not going to change. I'm still going to be a high school baseball coach."

Comparing Wagner to his peers only cements his Hall of Fame resume: his 2.31 ERA as a reliever is lower than Trevor Hoffman, Dennis Eckersley, Rollie Fingers and Hoyt Wilhelm -- all of whom are Hall of Famers. Wagner ended his career with an ERA+ of 187. Only Mariano Rivera had a higher number, with a 205 ERA+.

What's more, his 11.92 strikeouts per nine innings and .187 opponents' batting average are tops for any pitcher -- starter or reliever -- in AL/NL history in those categories (minimum 900 innings). His 0.997 career WHIP is second-best all-time among all pitchers (min. 900 innings).

Here's where Wagner ranks among pitchers all-time (minimum 900 innings pitched):

Opponents' batting average: .187 (1st)
Strikeouts per nine innings: 11.92 (1st)
Hits per nine innings: 5.99 (1st)
WHIP: 0.997 (2nd)
Opponents' OPS: .558 (2nd, based on STATS rankings of pitchers with complete OPS data)
FIP: 2.46 (5th)

Wagner, a seven-time All-Star, finished his career with 422 saves, which are the sixth-most all-time. In his final season in 2010, he was as good as ever, posting a 1.43 ERA and 37 saves for the Braves. Wagner could have pitched a couple of more years and tried for 500 saves, which would have made him a lock for Cooperstown, but he chose to spend time with family.

Here's hoping the voters recognize his dominance and the doors of the Hall of Fame welcome him in July.

TIP OF THE CAP

Prior to Craig Biggio's induction in 2015, there were no Hall of Fame plaques with an Astros logo on them. Longtime teammate Jeff Bagwell joined him in Cooperstown two years later, giving the Astros two Hall of Famers.

If Wagner reaches the Hall of Fame, there's no certainty about which cap he would prefer on his plaque, though it's fair to point out that he pitched more than half of his career in Houston. (A real cap debate could be brewing in the Hall of Fame case of Justin Verlander, who pitched 12 years in Detroit but has won two World Series titles, two Cy Young Awards, pitched his third no-hitter and reached 3,000 strikeouts with the Astros. And Verlander could have at least two more years in Houston to make a run at 300 wins).

Anyway …

The 2017 induction ceremony, in which Bagwell and catcher Ivan Rodriguez were enshrined, marked the ninth and 10th former Astros players inducted into the Hall of Fame. Most of those players, like Rodriguez, had only a cup of coffee in Houston, while others -- such as pitcher Nolan Ryan and second baseman Joe Morgan -- spent substantial time with the Astros, only to have another team's logo on their plaque. In Ryan's case he was inducted as a member of the Rangers, the team with whom he spent the final five years of his career despite the fact he played nine of his 27 Major League seasons in Houston.

Other Hall of Famers who have spent time with the Astros are Randy Johnson (1998 with Houston), Don Sutton (1981-82), Robin Roberts (1965-66), Eddie Mathews (1967) and Nellie Fox (1964-65). Former Astros Bobby Abreu, Andy Pettitte and Carlos Beltrán are on the 2024 Hall of Fame ballot.

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