Welcome to The Pregame Lineup, a weekday newsletter that gets you up to speed on everything you need to know for today's games, while catching you up on fun and interesting stories you might have missed. Today's edition is brought to you by David Adler.
We've been talking a lot about the MVP and Cy Young races this season, but maybe not enough about the Rookie of the Year race. Specifically, the National League Rookie of the Year race, which is a lot more wide-open than it was even a few weeks ago.
There are four legit contenders: Sal Stewart, JJ Wetherholt, Carson Benge and Nolan McLean. So today we're taking a deep dive into the race.
Here's a quick rundown of the case for all four candidates:
JJ Wetherholt, 2B, Cardinals
The case: He's easily the best NL rookie by Wins Above Replacement.
WAR is a pretty good starting point here, and Wetherholt's 4.5 WAR, according to FanGraphs, is well ahead of Benge's 3.2, McLean's 2.8 and Stewart's 2.3.
Part of that is his offense (Wetherholt has 17 home runs and 14 stolen bases), but the big thing is his elite defense. Wetherholt is one of the best fielders in the league, no matter which stats you look at. Statcast has him behind only Pete Crow-Armstrong -- and he's not that far off.
Sal Stewart, 1B, Reds
The case: He might lead the Major Leagues in RBIs.
Stewart hasn't just been the best run producer among rookies, he's been the best run producer in the big leagues, period. His 100 RBIs lead the Majors, and if he finishes the season in first place, he'd be just the third rookie ever to do that, along with Ted Williams in 1939 and Walt Dropo in 1950. There's a lot more to the game than RBIs, but, well … that's a lot of RBIs.
Stewart also has 28 home runs; Wetherholt and Benge aren't even within 10 of him.
Carson Benge, RF, Mets
The case: He's been red-hot for months.
Benge had a rough first month in the big leagues, but since then, he's been raking. He's batting .303 with an .826 OPS since the start of May, which is better than Stewart (.256 average, .766 OPS) and WAY better than a slumping Wetherholt (.242 average, .683 OPS).
Benge is one of just eight .300 hitters in the entire Major Leagues since the start of May, and with 16 home runs and 19 stolen bases on the season, he could easily go 20-20. Benge also has a rocket arm in the outfield. If he stays hot down the stretch, and his fellow Rookie of the Year candidates can't keep pace, Benge could swoop in and snatch the award.
Nolan McLean, SP, Mets
The case: He's back at ace level.
McLean was a Rookie of the Year favorite to start the season. But after some rocky starts early on, he dropped a little bit off the radar. Now he's back on it. McLean has a 1.97 ERA over his last 10 starts, and his numbers for the season are starting to look very strong: a 3.21 ERA in 26 starts, and 168 strikeouts in 148 2/3 innings.
If he keeps it up at the end of the year, you're looking at a rookie workhorse with a low-3s ERA and close to 200 K's. That's a pretty compelling Rookie of the Year stat line.
Read our full NL Rookie of the Year deep dive >>
No comments:
Post a Comment